Second-order thinking
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favourable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
First-order thinking is fast and easy. It happens when we look for something that only solves the immediate problem without considering the consequences.
Second-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions our interventions often cause harm. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question "And then what?"
The ability to think through problems to the second, third, and nth order - is a powerful thinking tool that not only solves problems but avoids them.
First-level thinking looks similar. Everyone reaches the same conclusions. This is where things get interesting. The road to out-thinking people can't come from first-order thinking. It must come from second-order thinking. Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can't see.